Will Race Cost Obama?

So now we have a poll that has put a number on racism in this presidential campaign. According to an AP-Yahoo News poll, that number is 6%. In other words, Barack Obama's support would be as much as 6% higher if he wasn't black. The operative question, then, is whether that 6% is enough to cost him the election. Recent polls, even as they swung back his way, would tend to say yes. However, look inside the numbers contained in this poll and there should be little to surprise.

The poll set out to determine why the presidential race is so close between Obama and john McCain. It concluded that Obama's problems aren't just with white Republicans or independents. White Democrats support their nominee at a 70% rate. For John McCain, the corresponding number is 85% of his own party. You've also probably seen the poll numbers that say one third of all Democrats and independents hold at least one negative view of blacks. That group is less likely to vote for Obama than those who don't. Yet among that same group, 58% said they planned to vote for Obama.

The poll suggests there is still a deep vein of racial hostility in America, and that political affiliation does little to mitigate it. However, the poll was taken before last week's economic chaos, so there's no telling how that might affect not racial attitudes, but how people will vote. That a segment of white America might let race get in the way of their own economic interest is old news. The question is, how big is the segment?

There are people inside the Obama campaign who understand the implications of this poll. That's why his supporters have been receiving a great deal of e-mail of late. The appeals are for money at times, but they also ask people to talk about the campaign among family, friends, and co-workers. Because after all, 6% is a small number. One third of white Democrats holding a negative view of blacks means two thirds do not.

Some say these poll numbers could doom the Obama quest for the presidency. I say otherwise. What do you say?