Is the Surge really Working?

John McCain has made a big deal out of the notion that he supported the troop surge in Iraq, and that the surge has led to a drop in violence there. He's right about the first part, but is he right about the second? For sure the US troops are doing a fine job there, but there's another factor driving the drop in violence McCain won't talk about. It's the emergence of the Awakening Councils, citizen patrols paid by the US to fight the insurgency.

Talk to Iraqis on the ground, as some American reporters have, and they'll tell you it's the Awakening Councils that have played a key role in lowering violence. The US military says the same thing. There were those who, a the beginning of the relationship between the Councils and the US, had problems with the fact that some Council members were former insurgents. In other words, people who were shooting at Americans were now being paid by Americans. Still, the Councils are 99,000 strong. That's many more than the surge, giving at least some credence to the notion they should receive some credit for the reduction in violence.

However, there are some clouds on the horizon. There have been recent incidents that indicate the Councils are starting to become a problem. There are turf battles, allegations of intimidation, and sometimes, violence. On top of that, a transition is coming. Starting October 1st, 54,000 Awakening members in and around Baghdad will join the payroll of the Shiite led government of Iraq. The patrols are predominately Sunnis. How this transition is made will speak volumes about whether the violence in the country remains low.

The US military is trying to help mediate the transition, but it's a tricky process. There are issues of pay, authority, and lack of trust between Sunnis and Shiites that goes back generations. All this goes on while John McCain keeps trying to hammer Barack Obama about opposition to a surge that itself isn't responsible for the reduction in violence. And even with the violence down, almost no one is reporting that the Iraqi death toll since the start of the war now tops 1 million.

And all the while John McCain refuses to tell America what victory in Iraq means. What does it mean to you?