Poll Vaulting

Oh, those polls! Wasn't it just last week that a series of Quinnipiac University polls told us Barack Obama was in trouble in four key states? Hadn't he gone from in front of to behind John McCain in Colorado? Hadn't a big lead in Minnesota virtually evaporated? And now, here comes a new Gallup poll that says something very different.

This, I suppose, should come as no surprise. Polls fluctuate based on a number of factors. Yet polls also become a big part of the media storyline in a presidential campaign. This is especially true now, during that fallow period before either national convention. So Gallup says Obama is now nine points up on McCain, and the important part is that the poll was taken after his overseas trip.

There's an interesting component of human nature on display every time polls are released. If the poll reinforces what someone already thinks, or is good news for a candidate a person supports, the poll has validity. On the flip side, if the poll is bad news, it's flawed or irrelevant. Polls are simply snapshots of a segment of the electorate at a given point in time, little more, little less. If they drive anything important, it's fundraising. 

When people hear commentators say the results of any poll are the voice of the American people, beware.

You are that voice.