Ghost of Politics Past

A most curious article appeared in one of our daily tabloids here in New York last week. It said former New York City Mayor and failed presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani was contemplating yet another run for office. This time the prize is New York's Governor's Mansion. But wait, didn't we just get a new governor less than a month ago?

Yes, we did, but the article says Rudy is thinking about a run in a special election. That election would take place this November, in the event Gov. David Paterson is somehow forced to resign. Resign for what, you might ask? The only answer is for the high crime of first degree candor. Unlike Giuliani, Paterson was honest enough to admit to past marital infidelity, and even to acknowledge that he might have paid for a tryst out of campaign funds by mistake. He corrected that transgression, it must be noted.

Contrast this with the behavior of America's Mayor. When it was revealed he fobbed off security costs for his mistress on three little known city agencies while in office, his then-presidential campaign went into furious spin mode. When all was said and done, however, the facts were laid bare. No amount of spinning could undo the damage arrogance inflicted on his presidential hopes.

Now, Rudy and his enablers see an opportunity in someone else's troubles. Never mind the same article said little outrage has been generated about David Paterson's past foibles. That would be among both his colleagues and the public. If this governor pulls off getting the state budget done on time, Rudy's hopes for a November coup will take a serious hit. No matter. Like an aging boxer who can't stop seeking the limelight, Rudy Giuliani will fight on.

And lose.  

Suckered!

How does a prestigious newspaper like the LA Times get hoodwinked by a jailed felon and con man who forged FBI reports on an ancient typewriter? The reference, of course, is to the now totally debunked story the Times carried linking Sean "Diddy" Combs with the 1994 ambush shooting of rapper Tupac Shakur in the lobby of a recording studio here in New York. The sham was quickly and meticulously exposed by The Smoking Gun Website, which deserves as much credit as the Times does blame.

The original story, written by a Pulitzer Prize winning reporter, has enough holes in it to make a piece of Swiss cheese envious. It apparently came from the fertile mind of one James Sabatino. This guy, who has been fabricating music industry chops for well over a decade, has a rap sheet longer than Yao Ming's arm. He has, at one time or another, posed as an executive of Coca Cola, Blockbuster,Paramount Pictures, Sony Music, Warner Bros., Viacom, and the Miami Dolphins.

He apparently typed the FBI reports used to dupe the Times on a 30 year old typewriter he accessed in prison (he's not eligible for parole until 2012). The 31 year old has done time in an astonishing number of facilities, both here and abroad. Yet this is the person the LA Times relied on to build its mythical story. 

What's obvious here is that a story that was reportedly six months in the making should have been subject to a rudimentary vetting that would have, as one example, noted numbers of spelling errors in the alleged FBI documents. Those errors were remarkably similar to those in a court filing by....guess who....James Sabatino!

The LA Times has apologized for this bit of shoddy journalism, as well they might. That alone may not be enough to keep Diddy's army of lawyers at bay when lawsuit time rolls around, as it certainly will. But the central question remains.

What was the paper thinking?     

Going Psycho

It must be desperation time in Hillaryland. How else to explain the decision by 21 Democratic Party fundraisers, all supporters of the New York senator, to send a threatening letter to, of all people, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi? The donors, you see, are upset about something Pelosi said. It was a little something about the candidate who is ahead in pledged delegates being the party's nominee.

Gee, how radical! The winner should win. What Speaker Pelosi said was that the superdelegates shouldn't overturn the the will of the voters. In both tone and tenor, the donors' letter to her speaks volumes about whether they think their candidate can overtake Barack Obama in either pledged delegates or the popular vote.

The broad hint in the letter was this. We, the donors, support Democratic candidates not just for president but for Congress was well. Keep talking like this and that money will stop. This is like the owner of a sports arena threatening to close it during a game because his or her team is losing.

Barack Obama has called the letter "inappropriate". It's worse than that. It shows these donors as a group are no better than the Republicans they are trying to defeat.

Besides, it doesn't pay to go psycho on Nancy Pelosi.

Court Shoots an Airball

A federal court says New York State can't enact a law protecting airline passengers who get stuck for hours in planes on the ground. If you've ever been in this situation, you know the nightmare. Your plane pulls away from the gate, taxis a short distance, then sits. And sits. And sits. In recent memory, hundreds of JetBlue Airways passengers experienced just such a scenario. They were without water, food, fresh air, and working toilets for up to 10 hours.

The New York law sought to remedy this by mandating these basics for passengers stuck on grounded planes for more than three hours. Silly state! The feds say that's their job. The appellate court ruled that if New York could get away with this law, other states could prohibit selling soda or require certain types of food be served.

Okay, that may be logical. But then, where have the feds been on this all too frequent occurrence? The answer is, nowhere. Fact is, New York acted because Washington hasn't. You know what they do. Spot a problem, form a task force, or stick a passenger bill of rights in a budget authorization bill that gets bottled up for the better part of a year.

A court can't force the Congress to pass a law mandating basic amenities for air passengers stuck on the ground through no fault of their own. The responsibility rests squarely on the shoulders of our elected officials.

After all, doesn't federal law make us fasten our seat belts during takeoff and landing? 

Running on Ugly

It seems even the Easter weekend couldn't stop the Clinton and Obama campaigns from going after each other. From Judas to Joe McCarthy, accusations were hurled, the offended reacted, and hopefully, no permanent damage was done to the eventual nominee. It's now reached critical mass. Not a day goes by when media aren't speculating about who can get the delegates, popular votes, etc. Suddenly, the landscape has changed.

You may notice there's a steady move away from media calling the April 22nd Pennsylvania primary make or break for either candidate. The goal posts are moving. Now people are talking about the cumulative impact of Pennsylvania, Indiana, and North Carolina. The latter two hold their primaries on May 7th. To use the hated sports metaphor, a one and done has become a best of three.

It remains too early to say which of these two, Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama will eventually become the Democratic Party standard bearer. It's not too early to ask how the party will heal the wounds dealt during this campaign. In many cases, the wounds are deep (ask Carville and Richardson). They cannot and should not be allowed to fester.

What we are experiencing is the result of having two candidates without massive differences on policy face off late into the primary season. If your differences on healthcare come down to mandates, maybe it shouldn't be a surprise things got personal.

Fact is, however, this can't go on too much longer. 

A Grim Milestone

We knew as long as US troop strength in Iraq remained constant, sooner or later we'd reach 4000 Americans killed. That the latest deaths occurred on Easter Sunday ought to amplify the calls to get US troops out of the country. It's less than a week after the fifth anniversary of the start of this sorry and unnecessary war. It's as good a time as any to take stock.

Over the past three months or so, we have been fed a steady diet of "the surge is working" from the president and his minions. That line is then parroted  by much of the media. In fact, the violence had died down. We should not have been fooled. The insurgency never gave up control of the tempo of this conflict. They chose when to ramp down hostilities, and they can choose when to escalate them as well.

Does anyone think the recent spate of rocket and mortar attacks aimed at the "heavily fortified Green Zone" are happening by accident? The Bush Administration has its own way of spinning this latest violence. "The surge is working, but the enemy is resilient", they say. That, in plain English, is a rationale for endless war. Endless, because there is absolutely no clue as to what constitutes victory. There's no game plan beyond containment of the insurgency. They won't tell you this, but they can't defeat it.

It also means, by conservative estimates, that thousands more Iraqi civilians will join the nearly 90,000 killed since this obscene war began. These are people who will never taste the fruit of American imposed democracy. Many living Iraqis are doubting whether they will either.

The Iraq war has lately taken a back burner to legitimate concerns about the American economy. Few people see that the war is in fact a drain on the economy, one that we can ill afford.

But above all else, we should no longer tolerate an unjust war.   

Back Monday

Hope everyone has a happy holiday weekend. Back Monday with LOTS to write about.

Mark

Home Run,Then Jitters

Hillary Rodham Clinton professed not to have watched her rival Barack Obama's speech on race yesterday. She and her husband should have. They might have learned something. If nothing else, they might have understood why the task of wresting the Democratic presidential nomination from his grasp may well be impossible.

If Hillary Clinton didn't watch Obama, you can bet an awful lot of those uncommitted superdelegates did. Don't think for a moment that speech won't have an impact on which way a number of them decide to go. It was that good. If you still have doubts, consider this.

Hillary Clinton is making an unscheduled trip to Detroit today. It's not because she wants to have a word with embattled Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick. She's trying to convince Michigan state legislators to reverse course, and support a June 3rd re-vote. Florida's is already dead in the water, blunting one avenue to cut into Obama's pledged delegate advantage. If she's not successful, three options remain: Seat the delegates by the January primary results (unacceptable to Obama), don't seat them at all (unacceptable to Clinton), or split delegates from both states 50-50 (advantage Obama).

The speech Barack Obama gave Tuesday has made Hillary Clinton's job harder, and she knows it. So does anyone who crunches the numbers, and the options. And just in case somebody tries to tell you how important Pennsylvania is, tell them this.

Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Oregon are all yet to come.

We've moved...

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Period, End

Senator Barack Obama is giving a speech about race today. It certainly wasn't planned, but then an awful lot about the race for the Democratic presidential nomination hasn't been planned either. The reason for the speech is simple. The so called story of his relationship with his former Pastor Jeremiah Wright, threatens to spiral out of control.

Never mind the "story" was part of a well orchestrated plan to inject racial controversy into the Obama campaign. How else to explain the blizzard of e-mails to media demanding to know why they hadn't covered it more completely and often? The rationale goes something like this. Obama was close to Wright, and was a parishioner at Trinity United Church for 20 years. He must have known about Wright's views on 9-11, America's role in the world, and most importantly, about white people.

Create doubts about Obama's views on race, the theory goes, and his white support peels away. Never mind that Obama has already parted company with Wright about those very views. It's all about guilt by association. The anti Obama smog machine even goes so far as to risk exposing dubious religious affiliations on the part of the candidate they support.

One might have thought someone among the Democrats would have Obama's back on this. Someone, that is, besides fellow Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois. Hillary Clinton has been a victim of this same type of attack, but she won't say anything for obvious reasons. But what about Howard Dean and the folks at the DNC? Can't he/they step up and call this divisive smear what it is?

Guess not.    

Can't Anybody Here Play This Game?

What is it with our politicians? Here in the New York area, we've seen not one but three sitting governors resign due to scandal since 2004. Rowland in Connecticut did time, then there was McGreevey in Jersey, and now Spitzer in New York. Will it ever end?

Probably not. Did we forget to mention Sharpe James in Newark, Kwame Kilpatrick in Detroit, Mark Foley, Larry Craig, Duke Cunningham? Even McGreevey is now back in the news with a former aide alleging three way sex romps with the "gay American" and his wife.

So what are the American people to do? What we normally do is sit back and grumble. "They're all crooks!", we say, as if we have no part in enabling them. How? By re-electing them with frightening regularity. Incumbent politicians usually have little to fear from their constituents. If they're in Washington, they can come home during one of their all too frequent vacations and do a few photo ops. If they happen to be running for re-election, the visits are more frequent. If they're local and statewide, shaking  few hands and kissing a few babies often is their ticket to another term in office.

That, and the massive fund raising it takes to run just about any campaign for an office above the rank of dog catcher. Our inattention has created a political class that in turn rarely has to pay attention to us. It's come full circle.

It may be naive, but maybe if our politicians thought they had more to fear from us, they'd be less likely to get themselves embroiled in scandal, sexual or otherwise. If only the passion Barack Obama has brought to the process would trickle down to other races for lesser offices.

If only. 

Kilpatrick on the Ropes

New York's sex scandal involving Gov. Eliot Spitzer came to its predicted end this week with his resignation. Ironically, there's been another sex scandal that's gone on a lot longer than the one in New York. This one involves the mayor of Detroit, Kwame Kilpatrick. He, like Spitzer, was once considered the future of the Democratic Party. And just like the outgoing Governor of New York, sex is at the root of his troubles.

For Kilpatrick, the issue is whether he lied under oath about an affair with his then chief of staff Christine Beatty. During a whistleblower lawsuit brought by two Detroit cops, both Kilpatrick and Beatty denied they were lovers. Then, the Detroit Free Press got ahold of some steamy text messages that seemed to indicate otherwise. Worse yet, Kilpatrick made a secret deal to settle the lawsuit in exchange for destroying the text messages.

The settlement cost the city $9 million dollars. For his part, Kilpatrick has fought back. At first, he issued a vague apology, with his wife at his side (sound familiar?). Then, this week, during his state-of-the-city speech, he took the gloves off. He referred to being called the "N" word, to threats against his wife and children, and called his situation a lynch mob mentality.

All this would seem to be aimed at eliciting sympathy from Detroit's black community. In fact, there is no excuse for this kind of racial abuse. Just ask Hank Aaron, who got racist death threats for daring to break Babe Ruth's home run record. Yet Kwame Kilpatrick is no Henry Aaron. Just ask one guy who worked on his 2005 re-election campaign. Sam Riddle says the mayor ought to "man up like Eliot Spitzer and resign".

So what is Kwame Kilpatrick's situation? Are he and his family victims of race hatred, or is he cynically using race to save his own skin? The answer lies somewhere in between. He is a politician desperate to stay in office in the face of mounting evidence he lied. Still, racism, America's intractable problem, throws him a lifeline. That part of Kwame Kilpatrick's travails won't be acknowledged by mainstream media.
But the bottom line is pretty clear. Kilpatrick brought a lot of this on himself. "Man up and resign" sound like the honorable thing to do.

What's Race Got To Do With It?

Geraldine Ferraro's hasty exit from the Clinton campaign has given the media all it needs to spin a recurring story in the Democratic presidential campaign. Media, you see, needs several story lines to get it through this fallow period between the Mississippi primary and Pennsylvania's balloting on April 22nd. So race works fine.

Ferraro's comments about Obama not being where he is today if he were white are pretty hard to take. Yeah, I know about context, but then so does she. Yet Ferraro's comments don't explain the drumbeat coming out of Mississippi Tuesday night into Wednesday. Race, that is the 90% of black folks who backed Obama, was pretty much all there was to that primary if you watch the news. The people running America's newsrooms know quite well what this focus means. It makes Obama "the black candidate" in the minds of some (not all) of the whites who consume their product. That in turn makes him less attractive. So much for the color blind world of 21st century America.

For Pennsylvania, the racial pendulum will swing the other way. Black folks in Philly, Pittsburgh, and even Scranton and Altoona won't count for much. Disaffected working class whites will be the focus there. Which leads to the question, is the media simply reflecting America's racial divide, or helping to perpetuate it?

One thing is for sure. Neither candidate is well served by constantly shining a spotlight on the race, ethnicity, or gender of their supporters. For example, who were the 30% of white Mississippi voters who went with Obama? Or the black voters (around 10%) who stayed with Clinton? We'll never know. 

To those who cash in on racial calculus, it doesn't matter.

Work To Do

Later for Eliot Spitzer. He'll deal with his problems in his own way. We've got problems to deal with in black America that simply won't wait. These are problems we must solve ourselves...blaming white people or even the legacy of slavery won't work. This is on us.

Recent studies have shown that, among other things, one in nine black men between the ages of 20 and 34 are locked up, either in jail or in prison. The Centers for Disease Control tells us an astonishing 48% of black teens ages 14 to 19 have one or more STD. A study of our buying habits says black folks spend far too much money on foolishness, save way too little, and spend like drunken sailors even when the national economy is in freefall (like now).

Taken separately, these facts are troubling. Taken together, they're downright frightening. They mean we're tossing away our future even as we say we're concerned about it. We cannot afford to stand by and watch our young girls fall ill to sexual disease, watch our young men march off to prison as if it's a right of passage, and ignore basic economic facts as if we live somewhere else besides America.  

This is not to beat black folks up. We have much to be proud of, including a guy named Obama who could be the next President of the United States. But make no mistake, we've got work to do, serious work. Each of these negative statistics is there for us to change for the better. To believe that we're unable or incapable of doing so mocks all that we have achieved since we were brought to this country in chains. One in nine young black men in prison should be one in one hundred. 48% of our black teens getting STDs can be reduced to 10%. We can resolve to save more and spend less, especially on things that don't appreciate in value.

We can do all of this! It only takes knowledge, and work. 

Spitzer's Steep Fall

The first question that comes from New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer's stunning fall from grace is, what in the world was he thinking? It's entirely possible he'll leave office before the sun sets on this day. And all this for a four hour encounter with the high priced hooker?

This was the guy who made his reputation as a crusader against evil. In 2004 he busted a prostitution ring based on Staten Island. More than a dozen people were arrested, and you could almost see the righteous indignation dripping from his every word. And now this. A governor overwhelmingly elected with a mandate to "clean up Albany", reduced to the name "Client 9"?

It's too much.

From a purely practical standpoint, Spitzer didn't cover his tracks very well. Talking over the details of a tryst with one of the bosses of the prostitution ring speaks to a stunning lack of street smarts, even for a guy who went to Harvard Law School. Not to ever think the ring in question, Emperor's Club VIP might have been wiretapped is just plain dumb for a former prosecutor.

Yet these things alone wouldn't doom Eliot Spitzer. Two other components of this sad saga, if true,will cost him his job. One, the wiretap implies Spitzer had a running account with these people. That means this wasn't a one time indiscretion. Problem two involves the money laundering charge the four people busted in this case are facing. In fact, that's what could land them in prison for a long stretch if convicted. The math here is simple.

Prostitution+money laundering+Eliot Spitzer=Former Governor Eliot Spitzer  

Cart Before the Horse

As Barack Obama wins yet another caucus state over the weekend (Wyoming), the talk of a Clinton-Obama ticket gets louder. It now looks like the primary promoters of this idea are....the Clintons themselves. Think about it. Hillary drops he hint twice, then Bill says such a ticket would be unstoppable. 

There's only one problem with their wishful thinking. Obama leads both in delegates and the popular vote. As one media maven eloquently put it, Hillary Clinton is trying to con someone into buying a house she doesn't own. That about sums it up, but the question lingers...why?

There are several possible answers. Floating the so called dream ticket with Senator Clinton at the top gives the impression she's the front runner when actually, she's not. The scenario is also aimed, not so subtly, at the superdelegates. If she can convince them this ticket has the best chance of beating John McCain in November, she could move some of the 345 uncommitted bigwigs to her corner. In addition, someone in the Clinton camp has done the math, and knows nothing short of a landslide in Pennsylvania next month won't help her much.

I guess the Clinton camp figures it's worth a try. To his credit, Barack Obama isn't taking the bait. He says it's premature to talk about a November ticket, and he's right. He also knows the chances of Hillary taking the number two spot with him at the top are slim and none. 

So the Democrats brawl on for the next six weeks or so, hoping (one figures) against hope one candidate emerges before the national convention in August.

So much for dreams, and tickets.

Multiple Choice?

Since it's become clear neither of the Democratic presidential hopefuls will gather the 2025 delegates necessary to win the nomination during the primary season, eyes have become focused on two situations which could help decide the outcome. One is which way the 796 odd superdelegates will pledge themselves, and whether party bigwigs should even be in the position of choosing the nominee. The other is the sticky question of what to do about Florida and Michigan.

Right now, none of their delegates will be seated at the national convention in August. That's because, in their haste to make an impact on the process, both held their balloting before the Democratic National Committee told them they could. The party, however, faces a problem. Stick to their guns, and they risk losing both states at an angry electorate in November. Letting the delegates be seated by their actual results will see the Obama camp crying foul. Aside from losing Florida by 50-33%, the senator from Illinois wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan.

So, party people, here the multiple choice test facing Howard Dean and his friends at the DNC.

1) Stand pat. Refuse to seat the delegates, and take their chances in November.

2) Reverse course, and allow the delegates to be seated based on the primary vote.

3) Allow a do-over. This appeared to be gaining momentum earlier this week until Howard Dean said the national party wouldn't pay for it.

4) Split the pledged delegates right down the middle, awarding half to each candidate.

Both Obama and Clinton have their reasons for advocating options 1 and 2, respectively. Yet neither should be confused with the health and well being of the Democratic Party. Given the estimated $30 million dollar price tag of re-votes in both states, option 3 seems problematic.

While the 4th option may not satisfy the candidates, or those who say "rules are rules", it is ultimately equitable and fair to both Clinton and Obama. The DNC should also give all states fair warning that this is a one time solution, and that the next states to defy the party's rules won't be treated with such beneficence. 

And then there's the issue of the superdelegates........  

Recession. What Recession?

Yes folks, there is no recession. We know this because our lame duck president told us so. Of course, he had no clue there are predictions gas prices could rise to $4 dollars a gallon by spring. The mortgage crisis? Just a blip on the radar screen. A bit of a slowdown, sure, but recession? Nah! Here in the New York area, the national economic blues are only half the story.

New York City agencies are facing a second round of budget cuts that will have an effect on the quality of services delivered to residents, no matter what City Hall says. Education, housing, sanitation, you name it will have to make do with less. New Jersey wasn't spared either. State aid to municipalities has also been cut as the Garden State faces a yawning budget gap. Even with all this, as they say on tv,"but wait....there's more!"

Last weekend,the cost of just about every form of municipal transit went up. Subways, buses, bridges, tunnels, the PATH train from New Jersey, commuter rails, all saw fare and toll hikes. Our politicians refuse to call this what it is, a tax increase. Better to wring their hands and pass the blame onto some other politician.

It's a cycle we've seen in the past, and it can't have come at a worse time. People are struggling to make ends meet. Mortgage companies and landlords don't want to hear about rising prices or declining services. They want their money. As prices continue to rise, people make hard choices about what to cut out of their household budgets. As consumers spend less, the economy continues to slow, keeping the downturn going.

For George Bush, ignorance is bliss. After all, he doesn't know many people that have to pay for their own health care. Gas prices rising? No worries for him. He doesn't drive himself anywhere. Recession? That's someone else's problem.

It's ours. 

Hillary's New Life

The senator from New York got the equivalent of mouth-to-mouth last night, courtesy of Ohio and Texas. Her win in the Buckeye state was comfortable,while Texas was close. So how did Obama blow it? Or did he?

 

Two things stand out. The wishy-washy response to the NAFTA-Canada thing could not have helped in Ohio, where Obama made a big deal out of savaging the agreement. During a time when voters seem to want the genuine article, this made him (rightly or wrongly) appear to be just another fake politician. Not a smart move when you're playing catchup in the Rust Belt.

Barack Obama's other problem wasn't really his. That 3AM ad of Hillary's worked, at least to the point that it raised questions about who would do a better job in a national emergency. People say they don't like negative advertising, but time after time, it works, and works well.

Obama still has the overall edge in delegates, but Tuesday should serve as a grim reminder that he's got work to do. As much as I hate to use sports metaphor to describe politics, Obama has shown himself to be a skilled counter-puncher. Trouble is, counter-punching might not win the title you're looking for.

The senator from Illinois must begin to make a serious case for himself at the expense of his opponent. Reacting to what she says about him won't win him Pennsylvania, the next big prize in the Democratic presidential sweepstakes (though not the only one). It's time for Obama to come out swinging.

It's also time for Democrats to realize this battle may not be decided until the end of August at the Democratic National Convention. That means looking forward to dealing with the role the superdelegates will play, as well as devising an equitable solution to the sticky problem of the Michigan and Florida delegations, which are now not going to be seated.

Tall orders, yes, but that's why they pay Howard Dean, isn't it?  

  

Mark Riley Politics Plus

Hey, it's Mark Riley and I've just launched a new radio talk show. If you're in the tri-state New York area, you can listen to the show at 1190AM WLIB, and if you are anywhere else you can stream in on the Internet at www.wlib.com. My program airs weeknights from 7-9:30pm...welcome!